An Energy Crisis Journal: March and April 2008

March 11, 2008: Tuesday

(Vancouver, BC) Oil prices continue to climb, setting new records, and reached an intraday high of $109.72/barrel for WTI. Yesterday's close was at $108.21/bbl. With the knowledge I have, these prices are unnerving. When I last saw the prices at Washington gas stations, I couldn't help but get a sinking feeling. The US economy is certainly beginning to respond. It's slowing. People are spending less, traveling less. Yet prices in many sectors continue to climb. Stagflation. With each passing day, we're pushing further into Bakhtiari's "Transition 1". At some point, the world is going to seem a very strange, alien place.

April 15, 2008: Tuesday

(Seattle, WA) WTI reached at least $114.04/bbl today, the much-anticipated "triple-Yergin" on The Oil Drum. Some of this climb appears to be related to the shutdown of at least four Mexican oil terminals, supposedly due to inclement weather. Could be a cover story for rapidly diminishing oil production as Cantarell has been in decline for at least a year now. And, it appears that Russia's all-important oil production has now peaked and had gone into decline, news that appeared in many places, including the Wall Street Journal, I believe. Welcome to the Peak plateau. Peak oil now. Gas prices at the Shell station across the street jumped a dime a gallon today to $3.68/gallon. By far the highest level I've seen at this facility.

April 28, 2008: Monday

(Vancouver, BC) Average fuel prices in the United States climbed over $3.60/gal for regular unleaded today. This is still dirt cheap compared to, say here, where I paid $1.28 CAN/liter for 87 octane at a local Chevron (something like $4.85 CAN/gallon). Oil continued to trade between $118 and $119/bbl for WTI. Closure of the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland due to a strike and major pipeline disruptions in Nigeria seem to be contributing to the high prices. However, it is hard to ignore the steady, relentless climb in prices over recent years. Clearly the fundamentals are at work on the price of oil, too, and I am convinced that the supply and demand balance is the biggest part. We're on Peak Plateau. Production rates are not growing significantly, and have not since the summer of 2004. But the world's economy in total continues to grow, and it is ever-hungry for oil.